Designation crystal ball

UPDATE 19th September 2016 —–

I’ve updated the designation crystal ball with the data published over the weekend (or very early this morning) from DCLG.

Again, I’ve just discarded the quarter of data that I don’t think will count towards designation so you can play “what if ?”. Some councils will be pleasantly surprised, others will not. There is at least one council that drops into the potential designation zone.

Lastly, anticipating the question “What is going to be the designation threshold for non-majors ?” we don’t know. Perhaps you can make a guess – there are 9 councils below 60% – does that feel about right ?

I have tried to publish this as a web document here

crystal-ball

 

———-

Just a quick post today. You’ll have noticed that the epic consultation document last week included a question about the level at which the new criteria for designation on non-majors should be set. [it suggests a range of between 60% and 70% to save you the legwork]

This, coupled with an estimate of when the new designation process will take place, allows councils to make a forecast of what their performance will be when designation for non-majors occurs.

To make life easy, I’ve put together a little spreadsheet that allows you to bring together the three sets of data

  1. The four published quarters of data from October 14 to Sept 15 (DCLG live tables)
  2. The quarter from Oct-Dec 15 that you already know about but isn’t published
  3. The three quarters from Jan – Sep 16 that you’ll need to forecast

Dealing with designation on majors is quite easy because there aren’t many of them. Dealing with designation on minors is not, and many councils at the bottom of table 153 are about to find out that they may have created an impossible mountain to climb. Too many cases, and too many applicants unprepared to enter into the EoT rigmarole.

 

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4 thoughts on “Designation crystal ball

  1. Someone thorough (thanks Jenna) checked the figures in table 153, and realised they were different to the figures submitted via iform.

    [Table 153] includes minor developments, changes of use where the site area is less than one hectare, householder developments and ‘district matters’ decisions on minerals processing (for quarters up to 31 March 2014, after which the relevant question was removed from the PS1/2 form).

    […] this equates to Q13, Q14, Q15, Q16, Q17, Q18, Q20 and Q21 of PS2. The data up to March 2014 will also include any application provided under Q19 (minerals processing), which is no longer within PS2.

  2. Update: I have updated the spreadsheet with the latest set of information from DCLG’s live tables. You can find your council and plug your numbers in to see where you will end up.

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